22 сакавіка 2006

Summing up - by LJ user Lipski

To sum up the last four days' events, I'd like to say the following.

The Belarusian Maidan [Maidan means 'square' in Ukranian, referring to the Orange revolution - IL] has not won, but failed. From the very beginning, March the 19th. Yes, some people have got rid of fear. Yes, there was mass action that Minsk hasn't seen in a long while. Yes, it hasn't been suppressed. BUT. It wasn't supressed not because anyone is afraid of EU sanctions, but because there wasn't a need to supress it. Such development demonstrates the weakness of the opposition and plays into the regime's hand. "Maidan" as it is right now, is good for the official TV's picture. It's turned into an instrument of the regime's propaganda, not the opposition's campaign. "Maidan" is happening not because of its defenders' heroism (no irony here), but thatnks to the goodwill of the regime. The tent camp could be taken out tonight, nicely and quietly, when there are 200 people in there, just like they took out the first tent on the square. And I'm almost positive that that wouldn't cause an explosion of protests or international sanctions.

As four days have passed, we see no political dynamics. The protests are dying down. With each day, there are fewer and fewer people. On monday, there were 7-8 thousands, yesterday - 3,500 to 4,000, and today - around three. The same tendency as in fall 2004. There is no plan, no action, no palpable goals, no organization. The situation can only be rescued by a mass action on March 25th, but it doesn't look like it's being seriously prepared.

In my view, it's wrong to identify the events in Minsk with Maida, as many people do. A better analogy would be "Ukraine without Kuchma", which didn't succeed, but became a foundation for the Orange revolution. After the "Minsk maidan", what has to follow is organizational work, if the opposition wants to accomplish something, and is psychologically prepared to take power into its hands and to take charge.

P.S. Since right now events are developing in a rather predictable way, I've decided to stop reporting until March 24th. I have to get some work done. With all this work, I've neglected all my drinking revolution, I've neglected all my work :-)

Lenin's comment: I know Lipski's article may sound pessimistic to some, but I see it as forward looking and hopeful. It looks like these people are capable of not only protesting and taking risks, they are willing to work for their dignity and their future. The chances of victory for the Belarusian revolution are slim to none this time around, but the thing is, the revolution HAS started, and I think there are a whole lot of lessons to learn from this, both in Belarus and in the West.

1 Comments:

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