24 сакавіка 2006

Commenting on PubliusPundit

Publius has a good analysis of the situation in Belarus, and he is understandibly outraged
Lukashenko is going for utter brutality, trying to reinstill the fear that these protestors lost over the past few days. Milinkevich warned that persecution will only lead to further protests; a direct challenge. Lukashenko took it. Now we will see if the freedom fighters in Belarus are ready to fight for it for real. I hope we see it. They’ll need to do everything they can to spread the word and bring the people out. This is absolutely disgusting.

A commenter suggested that a change could come in 18 months at most.

Below is my comment.

This is only the beginning of real opposition in Belarus. Before this week, Belarusian opposition was inconsequential. People saw them as a bunch of bitter losers - and for good reasons.

Even now, the biggest problem is leadership. If I were to finance opposition, there would be nobody that I would feel comfortable giving money to. I have more respect for Milinkevich than before, because he seems decent and rational, but it's not clear if he's up to the job of leading a mass movement. That job will require tremendous will, courage and determination, as well as outstanding organizational talent. Being good is not good enough for that job.

I think 18 months is a very, very optimistic estimate for regime change.

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