24 сакавіка 2006

What does the crackdown mean?

LJ user lipski writes his opinion on the tent camp crackdown.
Putting emotion aside, everybody won from the crackdown on the October Square.
1. Lukashenka has calmed his nerves and demonstrated his control over the situation
2. Milinkevich has got rid of the pain that the unplanned "maidan" represented.
3. The opposition has saved the face, because the authorities didn't let the "maidan" to completely turn into a farce, and besides, the opposition can accuse the regime in a violent crackdown
4. The camp's defenders will finally rest from overnight standing and freezing
5. The West got additional reasons to accuse the Belarusian government in anti-democratism and introduce sanctions
6. Minksans have returned to their regular lifestype, and nothing bothers their calm
Did I forget anything?

I'm pretty sure that if I were still living in Minsk, I would be bitter. The opposition has demonstrated its immaturity. There will be no change in the near future. If anything, the regime will get more violents. Sanctions won't make anybody's life better.

Speaking of sanctions, I think isolation would be the worst thing right now for Belarus. Ban on officials' travel is unimportant, it doesn't change much. But if the few Western companies doing business in Belarus are forced to leave, it will make things worse for ordinary Belarusians, especially those who want change, because they are more likely to be involved with such firms as customers, employees, suppliers, or partners.

If anything, the West should engage Belarus as much as possible. Isolation would make Belarus more like North Korea.


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1:43 AM  

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